Bucs-Chiefs player props: Target Cade Otton, Travis Kelce props tonight

BET $5, GET $200 BONUS BETS

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

$1,000 FIRST BET RESET (MUST USE CODE NEWSWEEK)

ESPN BET

$1,500 FIRST-BET OFFER

BETMGM

$200 BONUS OR $1,000 FIRST-BET SAFETY NET

BET365

$1,000 FIRST BET

CAESARS SPORTSBOOK

BET $5, WIN $150 BONUS BETS

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

If you look at when Kelce’s production started to decline last year, it was almost exactly at the same point where Rice started his increase in production. Rice and Kelce occupy similar parts of the field — mostly over the middle and underneath — so it is no surprise to see that Kelce’s production spike now that Rice is hurt.

The Chiefs did recently acquire veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins, who is going to get more and more targets his way, but this should not come at the expense of Kelce.

Last week, in Hopkins’ Chiefs debut, Kelce had 12 targets and 10 receptions, so there is no concern in that regard.

This is also a great matchup for TEs against this Bucs defense. On the season, the Bucs are currently allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to TEs, and they have gotten worse as the season has gone on.

Since Week 3, the Bucs have allowed the most receiving yards per game in the NFL to TEs.

Since Kelce does not do as much down the field as he used to, the receptions are the better play for him than his yardage total.

Travis Kelce o5.5 receptions (-130): 1 Unit

Cade Otton 60+ Rec. Yards (+125) ESPN BET

On the other side of the field, let’s go with another TE receiving prop, this time backing Cade Otton of the Bucs.

The Bucs have been dealt a tough hand from an injury perspective, as both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are confirmed out for this game. In addition, backup WRs Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard and questionable with hamstring injuries, and RB Bucky Irving is also questionable with a toe injury.

That does not leave a ton of options for the Bucs, but one player who is healthy is Cade Otton, who has been very good for the Bucs over the past two weeks amid all the injuries.

You should not look at his season-long stats, as he was third or fourth in the pecking order for most of the season until recently.

In these last two weeks, he has 100 and 81 receiving yards on an absurd 10 targets in each game. He has eight and nine receptions in these last two games as well, so his receptions prop would also be a solid look for tonight.

If we just look at these past two weeks, which I understand is not perfect but it is also both games in which Mayfield’s top targets were sidelined, Otton has a target rate of 21.1 percent, yards per route run of 2.26 and yards per target of 9.05.

If extrapolated out to the entire season, that would be the fifth-best target rate, third-best yards per route run and third-best yards per target as well.

Now, he gets a matchup against a Chiefs defense that is a funnel to tight ends.

Kansas City has allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs, but the most receiving yards to tight ends.

There is a night and day difference between how the Chiefs cover WRs and TEs. Just look at some of these TE stats against the Chiefs:

• Isaiah Likely: 111 yards on nine receptions
• Mike Gesicki: 91 yards on seven receptions
• Kyle Pitts: 59 yards (on an over/under of 39.5)
• George Kittle: 92 yards (o/u: 57.5)

This is by design, and we will gladly take advantage of this for our first play of MNF. So, let’s hope National Tight End Day, which officially took place last Sunday, extends into Week 9 for at least this primetime game.

Cade Otton 60+ receiving yards (+125): 1 Unit

Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through the links in this article. See the sportsbook operator’s terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.