Russia warns of NATO war within 10 years

What’s New

Russia’s defense minister Andrei Belousov has warned of a direct conflict between Moscow and NATO within the next decade.

He made the comments at a defense ministry meeting on Monday.

Newsweek has contacted the alliance and the Pentagon for comment.

Why it matters

Russia is keen to disrupt, weaken or even divide NATO and one way of encouraging that might be to convince the U.S. that war is coming with the alliance in Europe and to ask America if it wants to be dragged into it. This especially matters as Trump’s incoming administration forms its policies toward NATO and Russia.

The Kremlin and its propagandists may have portrayed Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a proxy battle between NATO and Moscow.

But, so far the alliance’s military assistance for Kyiv to fight Moscow’s aggression has been calibrated to avoid escalation and the prospect of a “hot war”, especially given the nuclear threats issued by the Kremlin.

Putin last month upped Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric after the U.S. allowed Kyiv to use longer-range ATACMS to strike inside Russia, formalizing changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine which lowers the threshold for atomic weapons use.

Along with the nuclear threat, NATO members such as Germany and the Baltic states have accused Moscow of hybrid attacks and said after the Ukraine war, Moscow could then make a move on countries in the alliance.

What to know

During a Russian Defense Ministry meeting with Putin on Monday, Belousov spoke about a possible confrontation between Russia and NATO due to the latter’s changes in its doctrines at the alliance summit in Washington, D.C. in July.

Belousov also said that in the war in Ukraine, Russian forces had advanced on all fronts and aimed by next year, to fully conquer the Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Donetsk regions, which in 2022 Putin had declared annexed by Russia, although it does not completely control them.

At the same time, Putin blamed the U.S. for stoking concerns in the West about the threat posed by Russia and warned they were approaching a “red line.”

What people are saying

“(Preparing for war) has been shown by the decisions made at NATO summit held in July of this year,” said Belousov, adding that Moscow “must be prepared for any development, including a possible military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade.”

“Russia is approaching the red line, through which it can no longer retreat and begins to respond,” said Putin. “NATO countries themselves are increasing military spending.”

“We’re trying to get the war stopped,” said President-elect Donald Trump on Monday about Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. “It’s a tough one.”

What happens next

Trump’s criticism of continued aid for Ukraine, insistence that the war should end quickly and reported comments that European rather than American troops should oversee an end to hostilities have added to uncertainty over the security situation in Europe for 2025.

Putin has long accused NATO of encroaching on Russia’s borders and the alliance is now 32-strong after Finland and Sweden joined due to the threat of Moscow, demonstrated by its full-scale invasion. On Monday, the Russian president again took aim at NATO’s increased military spending and presence near Russia’s borders.

Amid the claims and counterclaims about negotiations to end the war, tensions between Moscow and NATO are likely to increase, especially if the alliance’s European members bear more of the brunt of support for Ukraine.