How Matt Gaetz’s election victory compares to previous elections

Florida Congressman Matt Gaetz has won reelection, having seen off challenges from within his own party as well as his Democrat rival.

On Tuesday, Gaetz was declared the winner of the election with 66.1 percent of the vote, according to the Associated Press. When the race was called, 87 percent of the vote had been counted.

If Gaetz’s margin of victory holds, it will be smaller than his 2022 result, when he won with 35.8 percent of the vote. However, all votes haven’t been counted, so his margin of victory could change.

Gaetz’s best election showing was in 2016 when he won with a 38 percent margin. In 2018, he had a 34 percent margin, and 2020 was the closest race he’s had, with a 30 percent margin of victory.

Democrats had hoped to capitalize on controversies embroiling the congressman, including allegations that he had sex with a 17-year-old girl, and a House Ethics Committee investigation into illicit drug use, accepting improper gifts and trying to obstruct government investigations. Gaetz has strongly denied all the allegations against him.

An ally of Donald Trump, Gaetz easily fought off a primary challenge from Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, who had been backed by former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy.

The investigations into Gaetz fueled a media frenzy that threatened to overshadow his campaign, yet he managed to turn the attention to his advantage, seizing the narrative to portray himself as a victim of “Washington elites”.

His messaging played well in his district, where anti-establishment sentiment runs high and voters were sympathetic to the notion Gaetz was targeted because he had stood up for Trump-era policies.

Gay Valimont, Gaetz’s Democratic challenger, proved a strong fundraiser, raising more than any other Democrat, barring two non-incumbents in Florida.

Her campaign benefited from donations from outside Florida, but overall her fundraising was still significantly lower than Gaetz’s, who secured more than $5 million.

Days before the election, Valimont predicted that even if Gaetz won, the House would kick him out of office.

If Gaetz were expelled, it would trigger a special election, which Valimont told Florida Politics she was prepared for. While it is easier to win an election for an open seat than ousting an incumbent, it would still be an uphill battle for a Democrat to win in Gaetz’s district.

The district went 65 percent for Trump in 2020, and Gaetz won his reelection in 2022 with nearly 68 percent of the vote. Gaetz also garnered a greater percentage of the Republican vote in his August primary than in his 2022 primary.

A Democrat hasn’t won the district since 1992. In 1994, Joe Scarborough became the first Republican to win the district after Democrat Representative Earl Hutto retired, making it an open-seat election.

Gaetz dismissed Valimont’s prediction that he’d be expelled from Congress.

“Congress has only expelled two groups of people in American history: those who have been charged with crimes, and those who joined the confederacy during the civil war. I’m in neither group,” he told Florida Politics.

Valimont campaigned on stricter gun rights, protecting abortion and health care, having been a caretaker to both her husband and her son.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, Democrats had hope of chipping away at Florida’s conservative base. But, Gaetz’s victory is a reminder of the uphill battle they face in deeply conservative districts like Florida’s 1st, where cultural issues and loyalty to Trump remain driving forces at the ballot box.